Right now the internet is awash with chatter of unprecedented Russia mobilisation and counter US mobilisation which has the US warning Russia that the decision to host multiple wargames, with “no prior warning”, combined with the “withering of regular military communications channels” between the alliance and Moscow, raises the danger of misunderstandings between the two sides “escalating rapidly”.
The seven things which will have NATO spooked right now can be listed as follows;
1. The vanishing act of Putin (a man who uses little online communications at the best of times) for ten days, following the 007 style assassination of Russian deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov. Nemtsov being the alleged leader of the Politbuto’s pro-western soft-liners.
2. Increased military war games including large scale tank deployment into the Ukraine.
3. Russian air power which is aggressively probing NATO air defenses (and has being for months now) and is terrifying the the US military in Asia.
4. Upsurge of cyber attacks starting with nuisance attacks on US energy western infrastructure to full scale shut down of energy based infrastructure. This including a spate of accidents linked to crude oil refineries many of which have strong hall marks of Russian military cyber hackers.
5. A solar eclipse expected on March 20th; A weird anomaly which threatens to affect the supply of energy of Europe with serious consequences.
“ENTSO-E expects that the loss of sunlight would have the same effect as if one turned off 80 medium-size power plants. “This will happen on the morning of a weekday, when demand is rising,”.
The Washington Post reported “around noon, when the solar eclipse is supposed to come to an end, Europe would suddenly be flooded with a surplus of energy — a second risky repercussion that has never occurred to such an extent. However, European energy providers maintain they have known the risks for months and have carefully prepared for the unique incident.
6. Solar storm at same time; NASA has released showing the Sun’s biggest solar flare of 2015 is about to hit the earth which may also impact in communications and energy infrastructure.
An X-class solar flare, directed at the Earth, so powerful “that scientists have predicted geomagnetic storms on Earth today, which could see blackouts and disruption to communication signals”, which could also impact GPS systems and electronic devices. Although this radiation is unable to penetrate through Earth’s atmosphere, it is able to disrupt the area in which satellite signals including military and communication satellite travel travel and over load power grids and radio communications. In addition to disrupting electromagnetic signals linked to the so called NATO Super weapon the so called Son of Star War technology.
In contrast the electromagnetic storm will have little impact on Russian based communication which is valved based. A tactical decision undertaken by the former Soviet Union military during the Cold War to avoid the disruption caused by an Electromagnetic Pulses in the event of nuclear conflict.
The first wave of the solar Flare as it reaches earth has already being credited with radio signal disruption.
Potentially this all a Y2K non event.
Yet NATO commanders having learned from the Russian Blitzkreig on the Crimera, Bosnia and Afghanistan, know the Russians like to hit fast with tanks and airborne deployment and they like to go in hard and bold.
If these events turn out to be more than Y2K hype the question NATO generals will be asking themselves, in the face of increasing Cold War II tension, is would Putin the former KGB hard man, in the face of a purge of Politburo soft liners, be likely to take advantage of a window opportunity and press it to its full advantage. Especially in the face of a drastic increases of Russian military deployment.
7.The unveiling of the new Russian Super tank which is a beast of war in any ones languages.
Meanwhile one can only wonder what the Chinese must be thinking of all this.