National had 60 seats in the 121-seat Parliament before Mike Sabin resigned.
If it looses that becomes 59.

It is supported by ACT’s David Seymour, United Future’s Peter Dunne and the two Maori Party MPs, so even if it looses National Act Maori hold 63 votes on crucial confidence motions assuming.

If it lost one seat to NZ First it could still command a 63-58 majority.

The issue however becomes that National now becomes reliant on minor parties A: radically changing the balance of power. B: Both the Maori party and to a lesser extent Dunne know that their very existence in the next election will be based on how much they are deemed to be tied to National’s folly’s. In this new relationship they now will find themselves in the drivers seats on perceived conscience issues. Of course winning the North land seats will secure NZ Firsts chance of moving into third position on the political circuit.

Yet even more radical than that should National face one more Mike Sabin (and considering the number of MP sent to the back bench in National’s last administration – this is not an option to be just dismissed outof hand)  and if the Maori Party were to cross over then you would have a real game changer

Regardless it may very also mean the demise of Mana and even the Maori party (if they don’t distant themselves from National by the time of the next election) which may in fact radically increase Winston’s power base even further.

This could be the very moment that Muldoon’s young turk has waited for in this game of thrones.


Comments 3

  1. marama waddell

    This is a crucial bi-election not only for NZFirst but also for MANA and MAORI roopu……why???……the shift to supporting a Te Tiriti o Waitangi 1840 maori version parliament will at last ensure the future political futures of all maori politicians in a truly bi-cultural parliament to be realised and the hard work of our tupuna to finally be realised also. This bi-election will for the first time in history bring about a sharing of power whether the corporates accept that or not…….they will finally be made to “heel” by the strength of “Kotahitanga” in the Taitokerau……the new United Nations where socio-economic and political power will sit in Aotearoa / NZ……because no other region has the “backbone”……nor the “tail of the fish”……nor the political nouse to achieve anything less but “tangatawhenua o tenei waahi”……kei ia koe e Paa tenei kaupapa whakatakoto i mua ake ia matou hei oranga tinana, oranga wairua, oranga hinengaro, oranga te whanau hoki, iroto i tau ake manaakitanga ko IHOA onga Mano, Matua, Tama, Wairua tapu me nga Anahera pono mete Mangai hei tautoko nei Aianei Akenei……Ae!!!

  2. Mare Consglen

    Mana have no reason to “distance themselves from National” because they have never been cosy….as for ” demise” Mana still alive….just not in Parliament that’s all.

    1. Post
      Ben Vidgen

      Cheer Mare check again that’s not what the article says – Mana issue is without Hone its unlikely Mana will get a seat peroid in the next election. Don’t blame me blame the shit PR team that handled Internet Mana in the last election.

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