National had 60 seats in the 121-seat Parliament before Mike Sabin resigned.
If it looses that becomes 59.
It is supported by ACT’s David Seymour, United Future’s Peter Dunne and the two Maori Party MPs, so even if it looses National Act Maori hold 63 votes on crucial confidence motions assuming.
If it lost one seat to NZ First it could still command a 63-58 majority.
The issue however becomes that National now becomes reliant on minor parties A: radically changing the balance of power. B: Both the Maori party and to a lesser extent Dunne know that their very existence in the next election will be based on how much they are deemed to be tied to National’s folly’s. In this new relationship they now will find themselves in the drivers seats on perceived conscience issues. Of course winning the North land seats will secure NZ Firsts chance of moving into third position on the political circuit.
Yet even more radical than that should National face one more Mike Sabin (and considering the number of MP sent to the back bench in National’s last administration – this is not an option to be just dismissed outof hand) and if the Maori Party were to cross over then you would have a real game changer
Regardless it may very also mean the demise of Mana and even the Maori party (if they don’t distant themselves from National by the time of the next election) which may in fact radically increase Winston’s power base even further.
This could be the very moment that Muldoon’s young turk has waited for in this game of thrones.